When does Corona in Indonesia End?
The Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) researcher predicts that the spread of Covid-19 in Indonesia will reach its peak in the second or third week of April and ends late May or early June.Predictions are based on simulated results and simple modeling of predictions of the Covid-19 spread conducted by Center for Mathematical Modeling and Simulation (P2MS) ITB.According to Nuning Nuraini, one of the research teams who conducted the simulation, there was a shift in results from the crowd discussed earlier.
In one of the articles published on the ITB official website on Wednesday (18/3/2020), Nuning Nuraini said that the results showed the spread of the Covid-19 was at the peak at the end of March 2020 and ended in mid-April 2020 with the largest new daily case being at the figure of about 600.
Nuning Nuraini and his team used the model Richard's Curve South Korea as it was in accordance with the study of the modeling group year 2009, which was guided by Heron Joro A Sidarto.The Model proved to be successful in predicting the start, end, and peak endemic of the SARS disease in Hong Kong in 2003
The Model Richard's Curve was selected and they tested on a variety of Covid-19 case data reported from various countries, such as China, Iran, Italy, South Korea, and the United States, including accumulative data worldwide.Apparently, mathematically, it is found that the model Richard's Curve South Korea is the most suitable (small mistake) to juxtaposed with the reported case data of Covid-19 in Indonesia when compared to models built from country data (This conformity occurs when Indonesia still has 96 cases).
"So here, when I write it I see the data update by the date of March 14th 2020.Indonesia is still located at the 96 point, then it is fitting data from several countries that have first had data, and the prevention of preventive handling
From those countries, South Korea has the best data difference than others.Thus selected the Carousel data model. So the match is seen from the difference in calculation errors.That's it. In fact, Korea has done considerable handling, "he said.Simulated results through the model Richard's Curve by entering the data 14 March 2020 (with 96 cases), it appears that the peak of the spread of Covid-19 in Indonesia was the end of March 2020, then predicted to end in mid-April 2020.
Is one month after the peak, the plague ends?
Nuning Nuraini said, mathematical modeling cannot answer and ascertain whether a month after the summit then the spread is over.He said the peaks and ends of the spread are entirely related to many aspects."Of course it's finished as soon as we all hope. And the model could not guarantee it, "he said reveal.The report on the simulation of the distribution modeling Covid-19 in Indonesia will be contained in the Journal of Indonesian Biomath Association, Journal of Communication in Biomathematical Science (CBMS).
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